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Fresno Home Market Trend For Fall 2013


The Fresno Market is showing is showing signs of a slowdown now. As you can see from the graph above, the “Pended” sales, which is the red line indicating accepted offers is on a downslide, as well as the dark green, which is the closed sales. You can see that the MLS active inventory is increasing, by the light green bar showing approx. 1283 active listings at this date thru October 2013. From other analysis, our prices of homes in the Fresno/Clovis area have increased 13.7% since the beginning of the year 2013.

The graph below, shows the “months inventory” at this time. We currently have a 2.8 months of inventory based on closed sales VS current inventory numbers.

Months inventory

Fresno Home Prices: Home Prices and Fresno MLS Inventory on the Rise

Good news on the active home listing inventory, as we now have over 1000 listings of single family homes and condominiums currently active in the Fresno MLS system and the trend is now towards an increase inventory and this is happening in other California cities as well as Fresno and Clovis. This is higher than a month ago, or 3 months ago when the inventory was at 775. I think we are turning the corner on inventory and we are going to see a slow and steady increase in inventory. The gain in inventory, is related to the increase in home values, which are making it possible for many sellers to sell now after declining values of past couple of years. Interest rates have also gone up about 1 percentage point over the past couple months. The combination of these two factors are bringing the realization that it really is a good time to sell for many sellers. Unfortunately this could also be somewhat of a bubble effect, due to supply and demand. Prices may level off and stay flat because the overall economy is still weak and unemployment numbers are still high. We need about 2500 homes on the market to be more balanced with the current demand, so we have quite a ways to go yet, but the rising inventory I believe is a positive sign for home buyers. It has been so difficult for home buyers over the last two years, with bidding wars on nearly all clean listings.

A Tale of Two Home Sale Markets

A Tale of Two Markets

With the Federal Reserve signaling an impending scale back of its quantitative easing program,interest rates soared in recent months. The average 30 year fixed rate jumped more than 100 basis points from 3.35 percent in early May to 4.46 percent in late June, and reached its highest level since July 2011. The increase in mortgage rates had an impact on the housing market as home sales in California pulled back slightly in June.Sales dropped on a month-to-month basis for the first time in the last four months, and were down 3.7percent when compared to June 2012.Despite the decline in overall sales, higher-end markets continued to show strong growth on a year-over-year basis. Sales above $500,000 increased 33.6 percent when compared to June 2012, and sales of million dollar plus homes jumped 31.7 percent from last year. This was evident in coastal markets such as San Francisco County,Marin County, and Santa Cruz as all of them experienced double-digit sales increase in June.Lower price segments of the housing market,however, continued to decline with sales under $200,000 dropping 43.6 percent from last June and sales between $200,000 – 300,000 decreasing25.7 percent year-over-year.

The vast difference in sales trends between the lower and the upper price ranges was due in part to the constraint in the housing supply. Overall housing supply in June improved slightly from the previous month but remained tight by historical standards. Inventory levels, however, vary across the board with a significant shortage in lower-price segments but are less constrained in higher-priced markets. The supply of homes priced under $300,000, for example, dropped 47.1 percent from last June, while inventory for million dollar plus properties increased 7.5 percent when compared to last year.The steep decline in inventory for the lower price segment is partly attributed to the lack of supply in distressed properties, as REO and short sales tend to concentrate in the lower-priced markets. The supply shortage in distressed properties is due primarily to government intervention in recent years, which slowed the flow of foreclosed properties to the market place. Bank-owned/REO inventory, in fact, has been declining by an average of over 50 percent year-over year for the past twelve months. The recent surge in home prices has also turned some of the previously underwater properties into homes with positive equity, and led to fewer short sale listings on the market. Equity sales, on the other hand, improved 7.8 percent in June from last year as home prices continued to climb and more homeowners started putting their house on the market.